About the Site: How It Works » Joining the Debate »
Predictions: A Discussion » Advantages of this Format » Viewing Predictions »
Making Predictions: Your Prediction » Elements of a Prediction »
Debating Predictions: Reactions of Others » Ground Rules »
Rating Predictions: Issues » Voting » After Voting »
Using the Site: User Information » Tips » FAQ »
Reference: Glossary » Contact, Credits and Acknowledgments »
How It Works
First off: There's a lot of material on this page, but you really only need to read this first section to start and get on your way. The material here serves not only as an introduction, but a reference as well, so don't be overwhelmed.
Next off: This site exists for your benefit as a tool to make and refine predictions, but that's not all it is. It is also a reference system to give a mechanism to help in making plans in your life and to determine what is good information and what is bad. That's why the tag line refers to this being a resource. Now...
Listen to this: Do you have good ideas, insight or information, but have had no way to let the world know? Or do you like news and information that has real value? And would you like to participate in a forum where your input really means something? Then this is the place for you!
This site allows people to anticipate and plan for the future by entering predictions of future events. It's a type of advance news site, and a new way of looking at web forums and news. By entering and tracking your own predictions and those of others, it helps you gain insight into world events and changes.
That's the skinny on the system. The general idea is that this system is something different from usual Internet forums. It's a new type of participatory system that makes it easier to gain knowledge from experts about your interests or to share your expert knowledge with others. And everyone's an expert on something, so start sharing.
Functionally, Foreseeable Future operates much like a normal forum site. To participate, create your account, then use your id and password to log in, then find or create a topic. Post a comment about the topic, and proceed to create a related prediction for the topic.
If your prediction comes true, you will be credited with a number of points. If it fails, you will lose those points; that is, they'll be debited off of your prediction score. As you gain points, your status elevates.
Join the action. Signing up is free and easy, just click the "Register" link near the top right of the page, then you are able to participate in the forum and update your user profile, add an avatar, and so on.
In the Forums, Look for topics that interest you or create your own with the "Start a New Topic" link.
Create your predictions by entering a comment (or "post"), reviewing/editing it if necessary to ensure that it is correct and meets the requirements for a prediction, then click the "Propose as Prediction" link that appears at the bottom right of your comment area. You'll get the opportunity to pick a title, due date and the number of points for (the importance of) your prediction from 1 to 100. Save your prediction, then other participants can sanction or protest it depending on their beliefs, as you can do with others' predictions.
The rest of this page goes into much detail, or, skip ahead to the Forums and try them out. To help get you started, you can look at other predictions, or check out the sample predictions in a sticky, locked forum called "Sample Predictions" on the Forum menu, which has examples to illustrate the system.
A Discussion
Predictions are an important factor of our lives. We need predictability in order to make plans, for almost everything from what we're going to wear during the day, to what we're going to do during retirement. Yet, we're quite casual in our awareness of this. Most people make vague plans with little grounding, just hoping things will work for the best.
Something better than that is planning through predictions. But to make good predictions you need informed ideas and opinions. And predictions have to be refined and logged in a structured system. Anyone and everyone seems to make predictions, but without some method of tracking them, they're subject to all kinds of mischief. What really gets me, although this is more of a past fad, is the "Psychics," who were making predictions all the time, yet most of their predictions never came true. They'd predict an earthquake in Japan, which is sort of like predicting craters on the moon, no real drama there, but then there'd be no earthquake in Japan but maybe sometimes in Kamchatka, "Only 1000 miles (1600 kilometers for you metric types) away, just a little bit off," you'd hear.
And, so the reports went, the police would bring them scraps of clothing of missing people and they would go into a trance or something, do a bit more of the "woo-woo" stuff and say, "Little Billy is in the well," but of course they'd never find Little Billy in the well. It was quite the spectacle.
Then you have the predictions that turn up regularly by people who write for newspapers, magazines or websites. The columnists use predictions as a convenient way to get some filler material, say in an annual forecast for the coming year. This makes for an easy way to fill up some space, but doesn't take advantage of the possibilities of the prediction format.
Now, predictions with a certain degree of accountability and a log of valuable correct predictions open up a whole new set of opportunities for individual research and planning.
So this site is for helping to turn predictions into prognostications, to improve the usefulness of predictions.
And there's another motivation behind this site, to do with the concept of "news." Word is, people are losing interest in media news, but with good reason.
For one thing, stories are poorly related or categorized. Stories are categorized to some degree now, but at too broad an extent: "Local News," "Sports," "Weather," "World," "Business..." Those categories spread across too vague and broad a range.
And have you noticed that, in news stories, things seem to just "happen," with only the implication that there're good guys and bad guys and things just occur at random except the bad guys do bad things and the good guys do good things? But events are connected. The news services should be investigating the connections and merging related stories.
As well as the lack of structure, there is too much slant or "spin" in the news. There is no room for alternative viewpoints, except within an artificially narrowed range.
Tying in with that, the news doesn't provide 100% of the information. News items are routinely glossed over, spiked, buried, or censored.
This site asserts that by providing a system for tracking, debating and analyzing predictions, information can be extracted via the productive use of debate, using the combined analytical power of many individuals.
Forum sites have appeared very recently, and a lot of people are turning to them, and portal sites and private blogs, for information. A lot of thought and some wisdom comes out of those, on a wide-ranging selection of topics. How to bring order to that massive resource? Even with search engines, a lot of good stuff falls through the cracks. Since there isn't a lot of structure to the forums, they are hard to use as a reference anyway. And with the constant progression of new items being added, the whole shebang is lost in time as it is buried under the new.
If you're on line and looking at a forum site, you may notice that a lot of the good content could be structured in the form of a prediction. Here's a timely theme: There is currently a lot of talk about car companies and their suppliers going bankrupt. On certain websites, some of the posters have some very good insight into this situation, and many of their posts could be expressed as predictions. Take this for a simple example:
"I think Schmoe's Automotive is going to fail by the end of the year, and here's why..."
Then there's always some contrarian:
"I like Schmoe's and think it's going to survive - and here's why..."
Organizing and tracking people's predictions allows us to see who's brought it to the table and who's just running their mouth. Often, someone's logic doesn't seem right, but can be proven by how it bears out. The truth must seem a little strange if we don't understand something, since it is something altogether new to our perceptions. Like the old quote says, "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." That's the system. There's something obvious there: That system is pretty dumb!
Knowledge isn't much use unless you can make some type of predictions with it, and if your predictions consistently come true, it tends to confirm your knowledge.
Plus, it's dangerous to accept the ideas of "experts" without backing. All sorts of nonsense has come from self-styled experts over the years. These experts were no more accurate than the self-styled psychics. But, the concept of "experts" is exactly bass-ackwards. You become an expert, over time, by making accurate predictions, not by calling yourself an expert, then making outrageous predictions only supported by other self-styled "experts" and the gullible.
Advantages of the Prediction Format
Suppose you have a good idea, specific or specialized information to share. How do you communicate it? If you go on a forum site and try, you'll be drowned in the ocean of chatter, and there are way too many folks who mindlessly contradict and nay-say anything and everything.
But it has been said that there are a million ways to be wrong, and only one way to be right, so it's reasonable for people to say, "Show me the money." This format allows you to do it by making accurate predictions. It also provides a means by which theories are broken down for analysis, so they become useful.
This site is essentially a forum, but with style changes that provide some big advantages. It lets you discover, before and after the fact, why something happened. And that's more important than the event itself.
It's also a nice way to express yourself, or advertise your business or service. If you have specialized knowledge in some area, here's the place to show it off.
Viewing Existing Predictions
In order to view existing predictions, you have a number of options. On the Forum main/index page, which you go to using the Forum link on the site main menu, there is a line with three links near the top right of the page:
Review Predictions or View All Posts or Topics
Predictions: View all predictions. This link lets you easily review all predictions. This makes for some interesting viewing, since you may find something interesting in a place where you wouldn't normally look, or a place you wouldn't think you would be interested in.
Posts: Follow this link to view all posts, regardless if they are predictions or not.
Topics: Brings you to a list of topics, much like the one you see on the main page when you log in, except this list contains all the topics, not just recent ones.
Besides using the Prediction Calendar to directly access predictions by fulfillment date, or the links on the Forum index page, there are a host of links on each user's description page (go to the User tab and select the user from the list, or, click the user's name, associated with each of his/her posts, or, enter the id in Search->Users->(name) in order to get to that page). You'll see the following links at the bottom of the page:
Posts (Posts) By Topic Predictions (Predictions) By Topic Participating
Posts: View all posts by the user, from oldest to newest.
(Posts): All posts, reverse order.
By Topic: Posts, sorted by topic.
Predictions: All predictions by the user, oldest to newest.
(Predictions): As above, but reverse order.
By Topic: Predictions, sorted by topic.
Participating: View all predictions the user has created, or ones he/she participates in; that is, has registered a Sanction or Protest with.
Making Predictions
Once you've entered a prediction, you'll then find out what the reaction of others is, as people will be able to protest your prediction, or sanction it, adopting it as if it was their own, so to speak.
When time's up on your prediction, subscribed participants will be able to vote on whether your prediction came true or not. If it passes, you're credited the number of points you assigned the prediction when you created it. If it fails, you're debited those points.
On the rare occasion, someone will make a prediction which becomes impossible to fulfill, due to extraneous circumstances. In a some of these cases, the prediction will be voted as nullified. This is for odd situations where extraneous forces intervened and made the prediction moot or unfulfillable.
Say you predict that Chauncey Muckety-Muck is going to win the sail race, but rapacious water termites attack and sink his sailboat before the big day. There's an example of where you might have grounds for a nullification. In this case, you'd make your plea for a nullification by using the "Plea" link control associated with your prediction. This opens a "Plea" page for the user to give an argument supporting a nullification, and allows voters (at voting time) the option to nullify the prediction. ("Nullify" is added as an option to the normal "Pass" and "Fail" options on the voting screen when a predictor makes a plea.)
Since predictions are not editable, be sure to make sure you've edited your entry properly before you finalize it as a prediction. This is why you enter predictions as standard posts first, then use the "Propose as Prediction" control to make it a prediction. If you do make an error in your prediction, such as a wrong date, or you make a mistake in explaining what you think is going to happen, your recourse is to file a plea, using the "Plea" control associated with the prediction. This will let the community vote on it when the prediction comes due. If you are timely in your plea and have made an honest mistake, most voters will likely choose to nullify the prediction.
What is a prediction? Well, you can predict you're going to tie your shoelaces, but that's not of much interest to anyone but your Great Aunt Fanny. Predict something meaningful, not like: "I predict I'll like this cake." You may have some special knowledge of something in some area, and have some great insights to share, or maybe you're just good at reasoning. Look at other people's posts and you'll soon get a feel for the whole thing. But remember, the prediction should be meaningful to others. You should also state how you come about your prediction, whether through a chain of reasoning, or you feel you have some particular insight for some reason.
Your prediction needs a body, which is your initial posting - which you may or may not decide to propose as a prediction. When you enter a post and save it, it will appear with Link and Quote links (described below), and Edit and Propose as Prediction links. Before you do propose some entry as a prediction it is editable (use the Edit link), so make sure to include the essential elements of a prediction: It should state a specific event which you foresee as occurring at or before a specific date.
And, importantly, the prediction should have some means of verification. Sometimes things occur, but aren't publicized. However, there are almost always signs that flag a particular action. For an example, you might state that The Italian Job Gang is going to pull a sneaky heist of the Second National Bank on Saturday when the bank is closed, so no one will know about it until Monday (since they're going to dig underground and bypass the alarm system). So the whole job's a big secret. But later, on Sunday, you see Sneaky Pete of the Italian Job Gang lighting his cigars with hundred-dollar bills. That would be a tell. So you would predict a sneaky heist of Second National on Saturday, and include the characteristic features of such an event in your prediction body: Gang living large, possible news of heist on Monday, big-screen TV sales up near gang's hide-out, Second National stock drops on Tuesday, and so on.
But what about long term predictions? Who wants to wait around for 20 years to see if something comes true? That's what we're all about: Things will occur along the way that lead to the fulfillment of the prediction. That is, there is always a sequence of events involved when something happens. The predictor can post predictions for all these way points. And that type of breakdown analysis is essential to the site. Remember, one of the purposes here is to try to deconstruct events so as to help determine why they happened.
When you propose a prediction, you'll see the "New Prediction" page. Enter the details of your prediction including:
1) Descriptive Title - to make your title descriptive, include the important aspects. If you think Fancy Pants will win Game of the Year, state "Mr. Fancy Pants Game of Year 2010 GameFest"
2) Date - the latest date for your prediction to be fulfilled, which means the prediction is expected to be fulfilled on or before this date. If you expect your prediction to come around at exactly a specific date, say so in the body of your original post. Use the calendar to select a date, which will appear directly beneath the calendar as a text string. Note that the more specific your prediction date is, the more prediction points you will be able to justify. The date must be later than a day away. Note that UTC time (universal time) is used. (You can set your specific time zone on the Edit Profile page.) Note also that prediction voting begins the day after the selected prediction date.
3) Prediction Points - is a value, selected based on your discretion, between 1 and 100. Consider a 1 to be a nearly trivial prediction, and 100 to be earth-shaking news. This is a seemingly subjective judgment, but if you're off-base, your critics will be able to jump on with harsh judgments. Note that at times you can be too high or too low in your points assessment, but, most times people will be critical if you fly too high - something to consider. The result of all this is that people may vote your prediction "Fail" even if it comes true if you're too liberal in your points assignment. Expect most predictions to be in the 10 - 30 range.
Your original post contains the meat of the thing, where you present a coherent background and reasoning for your prediction.
Once you've entered your prediction, you'll see a host of links associated with it. The standard links you'll see are:
Info: Non-active link which you hover the mouse pointer over to get the number of prediction points assigned to the prediction, and the number of subscribers (those who have sanctioned or protested the prediction).
Review: Takes you to a page showing only the prediction and posts directly related to the prediction, such as sanctions, protests, pleas and summaries. You tunnel through this link to vote on the prediction come voting time. The Review link still works even after voting is complete on the prediction, allowing you to easily review all the discussion related to the prediction.
Link: Click this to view three new links: Post, Topic and (x). Right click for a menu allowing you to copy the Post permanent link or "permalink," a consistent link back to this post. Right click the Topic link and select "Copy Link Location" to copy the Topic permalink. Click the (x) to close these three again.
Quote: Make a new post, quoting this original one in the body of the new post.
The links available to the author of the post are:
Plea: Make a post containing a plea for leniency from the voters, explaining why this prediction should be nullified, or considered not to have been made, due to extraneous circumstances which made it impossible for the prediction to be fulfilled. Posting a plea activates the "Nullify" choice, allowing subscribers to vote to nullify the prediction during voting time.
Recap: Make a post containing a summary or recap describing how events were fulfilled as described in the prediction, or even to admit defeat.
The links available to the the non-authors of the post are:
Sanction: Praise or accept this prediction as if you had made it. Create a post giving a summary of why you like the prediction. Points for sanctioned winning predictions are added to your Participation score. The grayed number in parenthesis beside the link gives the number of existing sanctioners.
Protest: Scorn or reject this prediction. Use the post to give reasons why the prediction is faulty. Points for protested losing predictions are added to your Participation score. The grayed number in parenthesis beside the link gives the number of existing protesters.
You can hover the mouse cursor over the links to get a brief description of their purpose. As well, hover the mouse cursor over the user id shown to the left of the posts, to get details on when the user registered, how many posts they've made, and if they're off line, when they were last on the site.
Note that the creation date shown for the prediction is the date of the initial comment/post. So if you enter a post, then wait a while to turn it into a prediction, the creation date shown will still be the same as when you first entered the post, not the time you turned it into a prediction.
Debating Predictions
Once you've entered a prediction, you'll then find out what the reaction of others to your prediction is, as we discussed before. Suppose you hold some heartfelt view and decide to share it with the world. Now the fun begins.
Things that make you go hmmm: No one is going to be right all the time. If you see a prediction you really disagree with, you click the "Protest" link and state why. Note that protests can be lodged for numerous reasons, just be sure to state what they are. You might dispute a prediction for any number of reasons: Faulty logic; not enough detail; wrong category; not an actual prediction; too obvious; prediction was already entered in another category, forum or topic; outcome already has been predicted by someone else, etc.
You may want to lodge a prediction that is very similar to an existing prediction. What if you think that a given prediction will come to pass, but that the stated time for the prediction is off - incorrect - by a week - that it will occur a week later than the original predictor thinks? In that case, you should lodge a protest against the existing prediction stating why, then prepare your own prediction with the revised date. Be careful to have sound reasons for doing this or you'll be accused of riding the coattails of the other person.
You may also think that a certain prediction is going to come to pass, but for different reasons than stated by the original predictor. This, as you would expect, makes it a new prediction. Again, please remember to lodge a protest against the original prediction.
Part of the fun though, is conflicting predictions between predictors, which gives the site a competitive feel and bit of drama. The intent here, is not to pile on the disrespect, but to help everyone refine their prediction skills and logic. You probably want to be sensible in your predictions to accumulate a good score, but it is not productive to be too cautious either, so get out there, put forward your arguments and start gaining points. Note that the score is available on the "User" page for each individual. The User section is available through the top (main) menu, or just click on the link to the user, visible in the user's summary to the left of all posts.
You may want to protest the content of the prediction, the date, the number of priority points the poster assigned to it, and so on. Which leads to the "Ground Rules" portion of this blurb: Keep it civil. No ad hominem attacks.
And no open-ended, vague snipes or jabs. If you must criticize, state the specific thing you don't agree with, and why you don't agree with it.
No baiting, flaming or spamming. That is, don't make deliberately superficial or ridiculous posts just to get a reaction from others. On the other hand, don't hesitate to post a prediction that may seem wrong to others. The point here is that we can't know what is right or wrong until it is proven or disproven. This site provides a system for people to prove their ideas through a concrete means. Even if something seems "out there," it will become obvious whether or not it is true over time.
Rating Predictions
It should be a piece of cake to rate predictions, you would think. Either the predicted events came to pass or not. But, unfortunately, nothing is ever that simple. Sometimes the results of a successful prediction are not directly observable, just as astronomers look at distant stars not so much through a telescope as by looking at pictures taken through the telescope and exposed for long periods of time to make dim objects more visible. In that case, since there must be either direct or indirect consequences to a prediction to make it a prediction, the predictor should have specified the consequences.
What of predictions with only partial success? The voting process will determine the outcome in such cases. I think that a predictor should be cautious in their predictions and if there are say, two outcomes expected, make a separate prediction for each. Using our Italian Job Gang example from above, we might make two predictions: (1) Mook McGurk to Buy New Maybach on Monday, and (2) Second National Stock to Fall on Tuesday.
Predictions are rated in the voting process. You vote by clicking the "Review" link associated with a prediction. This opens a page showing the prediction and all of its associated posts: The original prediction, plus, if any, sanctions, protests, plea and summary. When it's voting time, if you're subscribed to the prediction, a "Vote" link will be visible with the prediction. You can vote the day after the prediction date, giving the predictor time to compose a summary or plea if required. You subscribe to the prediction by creating it, or by sanctioning or protesting it before the due date. This automatically sets you up so you can vote and notifies you with an active (clickable) message at the top of the Home page (the page you are directed to immediately on logging in), to allow you to go to the prediction at its voting time. Due to this system, you don't have to worry about keeping track of where multiple predictions are located.
The voting process is simple: you "pass," "fail" or, in the case where the predictor has made a plea, "nullify" the prediction. Reading others' comments, protests and sanctions will help immensely in making a reasoned decision. When you click the "Vote" link you will go to a page showing the prediction's title, number of sanctions and protests, and so on, plus a control with two or three selection buttons: "Pass," "Fail," and, only in the case where the predictor has requested it by posting a plea, "Nullify." Click the button with your choice, then save the vote. It will be tallied after voting is complete and the prediction will then appear labeled as passed, failed or nullified. The scores for predictors and participants will show on their user profile.
As noted, in order to vote you must create, sanction or protest the prediction. But you are free to vote as you choose come voting time. The reason for the sanction or protest requirement is to get your views at the time of the prediction. And be honest: If your own prediction or sanctioned prediction blows up, vote it as "Fail," even if it's hard to do! It's not easy to predict the future, even failed predictions still may have some valuable insights!
Some advice: Stay on top of your predictions. The person making a prediction is able to vote on it. If a prediction receives NO votes, it will be failed automatically. So the simple solution for the predictor is to vote on her/his prediction, come voting time. The reasoning behind this aspect of the system is, if you don't have enough interest in your own prediction to follow it up, and weren't able to garner enough interest from voters, the prediction couldn't have been that important after all. So really it's to ensure that you aren't just idly making predictions, but are maintaining an interest in what you are doing. And it's not hard to stay on top of your predictions, since you are notified with that clickable link on the Home page whenever one of your predictions or a subscribed prediction is due. As well, you can enable email notification on your "Edit Profile" page.
After voting, the results are tallied in a person's score. Over time, it will become apparent who are the most successful predictors. Rank goes up as the score ascends.
Predictions attain a permanence since they will be accessible through the Prediction Calendar, for future reference. You will see patterns emerge on the calendar as the number of predictions increase, reflecting "incident" days or periods, even if the predictions for those periods are diverse.
Using the Site: User Information
Each user has a profile page. This page is found by clicking on any user id link. User id links are found associated with a user's post or by doing a user search, or alternatively, on the Users tab. The quick way to get to your own profile page is to click on your highlighted user id seen just below the main menu ("Logged in as..." ).
On the profile page you'll see a bar graph showing both prediction accuracy and participation accuracy. The prediction accuracy graph shows the accuracy of the user's predictions as a percentage; that is, successful prediction points divided by total prediction points multiplied by 100. The participation accuracy graph shows how accurate the user was in their sanctions and protests. If a user sanctions a prediction and it passes, the prediction points the predictor assigned to the prediction are added to the user's participation score. If it fails, the points are subtracted.
Now, if a user protests a prediction and it fails, the prediction points are added to the user's score. If it passes, the points are subtracted. The percentage here is calculated as: successful participation points divided by total participation points multiplied by 100. Net participation points and prediction points are summed to give the total score.
At the bottom of each user's page is a line of links:
Posts (Posts) By Topic Predictions (Predictions) By Topic Participating Change Avatar (x) Edit Profile
The first seven of these were explained in the Viewing Predictions section above. The next links, Change Avatar and (x) are to set your user avatar, the small icon that appears in connection with your id on posts and so on. Use the (x) link to disconnect your avatar, so you don't display any avatar at all. The Change Avatar link takes the user to a page allowing selection of a new avatar from a visual pick list, or uploading a new one. Use the Browse button on that page to pull a file from your computer. Be aware that there are size and content limits on your avatar - it should only be a small icon (normally .ico or .png type).
To edit the various user settings, and to change your password, use the Edit Profile link. Settings on the profile page are:
User Name - This field is not editable.
Send email notifications - Activate this check box to tell the system to send an email message when a prediction date comes round, for your prediction, sanction, or protest. Even if you have several predictions due that day, you only receive one email for that day, telling you to check the site.
Password
Website - for your website name.
Bio - for a description of yourself that appears underneath your id on the profile page.
Signature - for your user sig. that appears underneath your posts.
Timezone - providing a selection list for the timezone you reside in.
Using the Site: Tips
Aliases - You may want to have separate accounts for an alias as well as have an account using your real name. Often there is an advantage to making predictions under your real name, possibly because you feel your predictions are accurate and this will give you a good chance to publicize your talents. If you feel shy about your predictions, aliases help you feel more confident that you aren't hanging out there prone to embarrassment. Your alias or user name is your login name.
Betting - This is not intended to be a betting site, and it is definitely not a guessing site (it's not for predictions based on hunches or wild speculation), but it is fun to be able to give your reasons for, say, why you think your team will win. The logic of this site is that users will be able to see, over time, who has the best reasoning, or the best inside information. However, don't go trying to place bets based on the information on this site, and if you do lose money trying it, no one here wants to hear about it. The information here is for your own personal entertainment only, not to try and make easy money or something.
Finding Predictions - When you log in and are on the Home tab, there will be a list in table form showing Topics, Replies and Activity. This is a table of the most recent posts, which includes new predictions, protests, sanctions, comments, and so on. The prediction calendar (on the Prediction Calendar tab) shows all the predictions: past (closed), currently being voted on/yet to have votes tallied, and upcoming/future predictions for up to 29 years from now. The links you have already visited will be a darker shade than the non-visited ones.
Prediction Calendar - The entries on the prediction calendar are links to a summary description of each prediction, and from the summary, there is a link to the actual forum entry. Hover the mouse cursor over the prediction tag on the calendar to see the full title, with the status: pass (P), fail (F), or nullified (N), if votes have been tallied on the prediction. The calendar accesses and shows dates up to 39 years past or 29 years in the future.
Titles - You are assigned a title based on your rank and the accuracy of your predictions. It shows up, for example, under your user name in the information area associated with your posts. See Rank/Title in the Glossary below for more details.
Users of the Site - Click on any user's id link (also accessible through the Users tab of the main menu), to view his or her profile. Note that the email address entered in your profile remains private, and won't be shared with anyone. It isn't shown when others view your profile so if you want to show one publicly, enter it in the text of your User Bio.
Using the Site as a Resource - Once you see someone has a history of successful predictions, and you review their explanations, you will be able to assess who has the best reasoning and whose predictions to take seriously. This could be a great asset in some decision making process you were involved with. For example, if you were planning on buying a house you might review the predictions of someone who was a proven economics whiz and what their assessment was regarding the near future of house prices. Also, remember you can ask a question of users in the forums or start a new topic with a question (a topic doesn't have to start with a prediction), and start a round of predictions that way, then you can review the evaluations of a whole pool of talented predictors.
Using the Site: FAQ
How do I edit my profile? - Go to the User page by selecting "Users" from the top/main menu, find your id and click it to go to your profile. Or click on your name wherever it appears as a link, like it does to the left of any posts you've made in the forum, or near the top of the page where it shows your login name ("Logged in as..."). Then use the "Edit Profile" link near the bottom of the page to edit and/or display your user information.
How do I change my password? - Go to your profile page, as described above. Then re-enter your password and confirmation on the line reading "Password (twice)."
How do I retrieve a lost password? - Click the Lost Password link on the login page. You will receive an email containing a link allowing you to proceed to the User Edit page. Then re-enter your password as described above. The link will be disabled after use.
How do I vote? - To vote on a prediction, you will need to subscribe to it. Subscribing is automatic when you either create a prediction, sanction it or protest it. When voting is enabled for the prediction, a message at the top of the page will display. You vote by going to the prediction, then clicking the "Review" link. From there, you click the "Vote" link, then select one of the vote choices there. Naturally, you cannot subscribe to a prediction after voting has begun.
How do I see how many prediction points someone has assigned their prediction? - Each prediction has an "Info" link associated with it. Hover your mouse pointer over it to see a pop up tip showing the associated points, and the number of subscribers to the prediction (this number includes the original author of the prediction).
What is the little orange icon that appears beside some topics or users? - This indicates new activity in the specific topic since you've last logged in, or, new or edited items, in the case of Users or Avatars.
What about if I see someone else has made some predictions somewhere (other than on this site), and I'd like to post them? - That's the purpose of the External Predictions category in the forums. Post any predictions made by non-members there, as posts, and the admin will try to organize them in some semblance of order. Be sure to include, with the post, the prediction's author and expected fulfillment date, and a reference to where you found the prediction, if possible. These won't count towards your score, but will form an interesting subset of predictions.
Glossary
Avatar - The icon which may be selected by a user to identify him/herself. Recently uploaded avatars are accessible through the Home/Main page, or via the link on the user's profile page ("Get an Avatar"). A user may select from existing avatars, or upload a new one.
Blog - The essay section of the website, intended to discuss current topics, particularly related to predictions and the site. If you'd like to have an article considered for printing on the "Blog" page, please email it here for review. One consideration for whether the article is printed is whether the author has a good total overall score.
Category - See Layout
Comments - The system has a forum layout. You are able to discuss a topic without predicting, or sanctioning or adopting a prediction. You may want to propose your comment as a prediction if it has the form of a prediction, though. A given topic may have any number of predictions, but the predictions must be related to the topic.
Editing - Only the creator of a post can edit it. Predictions, though, are, not editable. You're not much of a seer if your first recourse is to the delete key. You are able to edit your comments, pleas, protests and sanctions. So it might be prudent to enter your comment then noodle on it for a while before proposing it as a prediction.
Forum - See Layout
Home - The Home page, accessed through the Home tab, is the main page of the site, showing a list of recent posts, users and predictions, plus a note of any recent activity on the Chat page, if applicable.
Layout - The layout of the forum system hierarchy is as follows: Category -> Forum -> Topic -> Post. The category is the broad subject, an umbrella subject under which other topics reside. The forum is a more specific item that fits under that category. A topic is of smaller scope yet, and a topic is something usually suitable to be set up as a seed - a basis for predictions. A post is a comment or prediction based on the topic. Posts are organized in pages. A typical hierarchy might be:
Category - AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
Forum - McGURK'S AUTOMOTIVE
Topic - McGURK'S ELECTROMOBILE
Post - This will be released for consumers Sept. 2014
A Forum subject may turn up in more than one place, though not the same topic. For example, McGurk might show up also under the category "ECONOMY:"
Category - ECONOMY
Forum - AUTOMOTIVE
Topic - McGURK'S AUTOMOTIVE "ELECTROMOBILE"
Post - Electromobile to raise US GDP 5% in 2015
You wouldn't want to post the same prediction under different topics though. If you see someone has done that, please lodge a protest.
Note that the topic is chosen to make possible other viewpoints. For example, another user may post an opposing viewpoint, or some other detail regarding the Electromobile under the topic. This means the topic will be a resource for all things related to the Electromobile and the Economy. Suppose Schmoe's Automotive is releasing a vehicle called the "Hi-Volt." Then it would need a separate topic under the same Category and Forum. Suppose someone wanted to compare the Hi-Volt and Electromobile: They would create a new topic called, for example: McGURK ELECTROMOBILE versus SCHMOE'S HI-VOLT.
Locked - A word to describe a topic that has been frozen, with no further comments or editing allowed.
Logging In - Create your user name and password by "Registering" (use the link on the main, or front, page). In the registration area, you select your user name, password, and so on. Then you are able to log in using the chosen name and password on the login screen.
If you forget your password, click the Lost Password link to receive an email message at your registered email address. Click the link in the message and you will go to the User Edit page where you can re-enter a new password (be sure to click the Save button on the page to make the change permanent). The link will be disabled after being used.
Lost Password - See Logging In
Pleas - Occasionally, due to external events, a prediction becomes unfulfillable. This is when the lodger of a prediction might want to follow up with a "plea" for leniency from the voters. Placing a plea opens up the "Nullify" option on the voting page. If the majority of the votes are in favor of nullification, a failed prediction's points won't be lodged against the predictor's score.
Points - A number ranging from 1 to 100, giving a predictor's assessment of the relative importance of his prediction relative to other predictions he or she can envision.
Post - (Also see Layout.) A post is a comment or prediction, the basic, fundamental element of the forum system. It is where the user expresses their thoughts regarding a subject. Posts are entered at the bottom text entry box on every page of a topic.
Prediction Calendar - A calendar, accessible through the "Prediction Calendar" link on the main menu (a smaller version for the current month is visible on the Home page). This calendar shows short prediction summaries. The calendar day they are located on corresponds to the prediction's due date. Click on the specific summary line to proceed to the prediction, and you can proceed from there to the entry for the prediction in the forum.
Predictions - A declaration of something a person believes will happen in the future, a prediction should generally be based on a reasoning process, and have some significance to other people, and not be a statement of something that is known to normally occur periodically anyway. The purpose of predictions is to allow people to plan for a successful future. This web site provides a forum for successful predictors to demonstrate and share their knowledge and achieve a certain amount of recognition for their ability.
Note that we are working real science with predictions. Suppose for example someone said there was going to be a stock market peak in two months. Then, if we see the peak at that time, the predictor is not necessarily proven correct, but we have good grounds to favor that person's theories regarding the stock market. The deal is, that argument need not affect anything. Regardless of whether other people like it or not, a theory is borne out on the basis of its successes.
Predictions should be based in logic, but may be based on a claimed "psychic" ability. There are good grounds to believe this ability exists, but not much grounds to say people can use it reliably. And there's also the possibility that anyone with a good track record of predictions that claims to be psychic may just be tapping into a better awareness, having recognized some pattern that others have not, perhaps subconsciously. That isn't said to disparage claims of psychic ability. If you can make predictions in that way, by all means post them, but please include the background/explanation of your insight.
Predictions: Points - Entered on the "Prediction" page, this value allows a relative ranking of the prediction from 1 to 100. If your number is too unrealistic, you will find that you get a lot of flak from other members who may be disposed to fail your prediction.
Predictions: Prediction Date - The latest date by which your prediction will come true. Voting begins on your prediction the day after this. Make a good assessment here - try to pinpoint the date it will come to pass as nearly as possible - or others will fail your prediction for vagueness.
Predictions: Problems and Issues - It may be impossible to satisfy everyone who feels mistreated on a vote or such. If you have a strong case, bring it up in the comments section. If there is real evidence of some sort of mischief or unfairness going on, post your concerns in the complaints section of the Forum.
Promotion - As in promoting yourself or your service, that's part of what the site is about. It provides a concrete way for people to prove themselves. If you have some specialized knowledge, one of the most useful things you can do with it is make predictions. And the best way to promote yourself is to show that you have this useful knowledge, as evidenced by your successful predictions.
Protests - Lodge a protest or objection to a prediction using the "Protest" link associated with the prediction. It is basically a reply, but the heading of your protest will state "Protest," making it obvious to the reader. Also, by lodging a protest, you are subscribed to the prediction and will be eligible to vote on it. The other option to become eligible to vote on a prediction is to lodge a sanction of it, expressing your approval. There is only one protest per prediction per person.
Ranking/Title - As you make more and more posts (and/or predictions), your rank goes up gradually. Your accuracy is rated based on how successful your predictions are, and provides the second part of the whimsical title shown underneath your user name.
Recapping - Once a prediction is due, or before, a predictor can file a recap to basically outline the events that have transpired showing that the prediction was a valid one. A recap is also basically a comment, but it is labeled "Recap" and provides a clear area for the predictor to summarize the success of the prediction, since it is editable. Since it is a summarization post, only one recap is possible per prediction.
Sanctions - Lodge an adoption or approval of a prediction using the "Sanction" link associated with the prediction. It is basically a reply, but the heading of your sanction will state "Sanction," making it obvious to the reader. Also, by lodging a sanction, you are subscribed to the prediction and will be eligible to vote on it. The other option to become eligible to vote on a prediction is to lodge a protest of it, expressing your disapproval. There is only one sanction per prediction per person.
Saving - Use the save button associated with your post (underneath) to save your entry. Also, next to the save button, there is a "Cancel" link available to cancel the post if you change your mind.
Scoring - A predictor makes his or her own judgment on how much merit a prediction has and assigns points to his or her prediction on that basis. If the prediction is judged successful, these points are credited to the user's overall score. If the prediction fails, the points are deducted from the overall score.
Scoring: Accumulated Score - A user gets a ranking based on successful prediction points, less unsuccessful points over all the predictions he or she has made. To see the points for a given person, click on that person's link on the Users page. Their Prediction, Participation and Overall scores are displayed there. Overall score is prediction points plus participation points.
Sticky - A topic that is "stuck" in a particular position on the forums index page and home page, usually at the top, so it is readily referenced.
Subscribing to a Prediction - Create a prediction, or sanction or protest one to become subscribed to that prediction. This gives you voting privileges on that prediction and you will receive a message on screen telling you it is time to vote when the prediction comes due.
Topic - See Layout
User - Member of the site. Recent members show in a list on the Home page, and a full list is accessible via the link on the main menu ("Users").
Viewing - Go to the user profile page (User menu option or click on the user's name link), to access links to allow you to view the user's posts in ways, such as viewing only the predictions, or to view in a certain sort order.
Voting - The technique by which a prediction is assessed as having passed or failed. The originator of a prediction can also apply for nullification of a prediction. A majority of votes by subscribers determines the outcome. If you are eligible and it is time to vote, a message will notify you. The "Vote" link leads to the voting page where you can view a summary of the prediction and use the radio buttons to pick. Hierarchy in case of ties: Nullify, Fail, Pass. The person making a prediction is allowed a vote on the prediction. The "Vote" link will not appear for that prediction again after the user has voted.
Web Addresses - You can enter your personal website address on the User Profile page.
Website - This site's posts are ordered as follows: Categories, Forums, Topics. Regarding the layout of the site (the hierarchy), it takes some organizing to keep things in order; therefore, Categories, Forums and Topics may be rearranged to keep things consistent and to maintain the site as a good reference. Remember that predictions will remain in the same place on the Predictions Calendar, providing a consistent referral point. Keeping the site a good reference also depends on you to create good topics. The topic is not the same as a prediction, but the prediction fits into the topic. Check out Layout, above, for more details.
Credits
Site developed by Mark Widmer Computing, modified from Trevor Turk's excellent Ruby on Rails system, El Dorado.
Header by Calbert Dyer.